Breaking Down a 3-Way Race in Florida

The New York Times lays it out for us:

Marco Rubio, Republican

Biggest Advantage: Mr. Rubio’s rise from long-shot to frontrunner came quickly, and he enters the race with the energetic support of Tea Party activists and the G.O.P. establishment. Republicans in Washington and Tallahassee are gunning for Mr. Crist after years of frustration with what they see has his selfish, poll-following approach – and Rubio’s campaign advisors believe that independents will either join their cause or stay away. “Current turn out intensity among GOP voters in Florida is far higher than either Democrat or Independent voters, meaning Independents could make up an even smaller percentage of the actual vote on Election Day,” two Rubio advisors wrote in a memo on Wednesday. “Secondly, it is a mistake to assume that Independent voters are politically moderate. In fact, survey after survey this year has found that voter anger about Washington spending and the growth of government is every bit as high among Independent voters as it is among Republicans.”

Biggest Challenge: The Tea Party is not enough: Mr. Rubio has said he would not change his fiery, fiscally conservative message for the general election, but the activist wing of the Republican party is not enough to get him to victory. There are signs that he has already moderated his approach – this week he criticized the new Arizona immigration law. If he goes too far to the middle, he angers his most ardent fans. If he does not go far enough, he may lose the swing voters in places like the I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando where recent Florida elections have been won.

Charlie Crist, No Party Affiliation

Biggest Advantage: Everyone knows Charlie. He has served for more than a decade in public office, and his approval ratings are higher than those of some other governors in states suffering greatly from the recession. His everyman appeal (complete with flowered shirts, opposition to rate hikes from utilities and insurance companies, and “I feel your pain” expressions) now combines with the ability for him to say he is running against partisan extremism. And with his veto of a controversial education bill tying teacher pay to student performance, he now has a high-profile example that is already paying dividends. Several teachers are slated to be on stage with him later today when he makes his announcement. "We are a very loyal bunch of people," said Andy Ford, president of Florida's largest teachers union. "A lot of people are thinking we owe him this because he stood up for us."

Biggest Challenge: Money and infrastructure: When Joe Lieberman ran and won as an independent in Connecticut four years ago, he had a national fundraising base among the Jewish community, and a trusted campaign staff. Crist has neither a financial nor volunteer base with his bolt from the Republican party. He will have fewer staffers to respond to attacks, and probably less money than his opponents. This could matter greatly down the stretch. Senator Lieberman’s campaign, for example, focused heavily on simple logistics – recruiting poll workers and running utilitarian ads pointing out where Mr. Lieberman could be found on the ballot. Gov. Crist, in a state filled with older voters, may have to use precious dollars to do the same.

Kendrick Meek, Democrat

Biggest Advantage: No one would seem to benefit more from a Crist run as an independent than Kendrick Meek for one simple reason: the numbers are on his side. There are now 650,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans, and if registration continues along its expected path, that lead would amount to about two percentage points as of November. If he does better with Democratic voters than either Mr. Crist or Mr. Rubio do with Republicans – as long as Mr. Crist does not win nearly every non-party vote – Kendrick Meek becomes Florida’s next senator. “If we had told anyone we are looking seriously at Florida this time last year they would have said, ‘what’s wrong with you?”’ said Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “And look at how the dynamics of that race has changed.”

Biggest Challenge: Name recognition; Meek, though he is a congressman, remains relatively unknown outside his Miami district. “Meek has been in the race for 17 months, collected 120,000 petitions and still has roughly the same name ID as he had when he started,” said Mr. Schale. He has about $3.7 million in his campaign coffers and will need much more to make himself a well-known brand. “There is a reason why very few candidates win one of the principal statewide offices on their first run,” Mr. Schale said. “He will need to spend a lot to introduce himself.”